Are Home Prices Falling in Greater Boston?

TL;DR

• Nationally, ResiClub's Zillow-based analysis shows home prices up just 1.0% year over year, with 66 of 300 major markets now declining.
• The declines cluster in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, while low-inventory Northeast markets are still posting small gains.
• For Greater Boston, watch town-level active inventory and price cuts, because rates back above 7% can soften pricing quickly.

Nationally, more housing markets are now posting price declines, but the weakness is concentrated far from Greater Boston. If you are asking whether home prices are falling in Greater Boston, the honest answer is that the region looks more like the tight Northeast markets still inching up, though rates back above 7% make that edge thinner than it was a year ago.

The useful move for buyers, sellers and small investors is not to react to the national headline. It is to watch one number in your specific town: active inventory.

What the National Data Actually Shows

According to ResiClub's analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index (link), U.S. home prices rose just 1.0% between September 2025 and September 2026. That is down from a 1.3% annual pace a month earlier.

The breadth of the softening is the bigger story:

• 54 of the 300 largest markets (18%) had falling prices in the August reading.
• 66 of the 300 (22%) had falling prices in the September reading.
• Among the 50 largest markets alone, 17 (34%) are negative year over year.

ResiClub ties the renewed softening to the jump in long-term yields that pushed the 30-year fixed rate back above 7.00%. Affordability was already strained, so each rate move bites harder.

Are Home Prices Falling in Greater Boston or Holding Up?

ResiClub's data points to a split along inventory lines. Prices are still climbing modestly where active listings remain well below 2019 levels, which includes parts of the Northeast and Midwest. Declines are clustered in Texas, Florida, Washington, Colorado and the broader Sun Belt and Mountain West, where inventory now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

The gap can get dramatic. Hartford, Connecticut, sits 28.6% above its 2022 peak, while Austin sits 28.1% below its own. Greater Boston shares Hartford's basic condition: limited supply and little room for new construction to flood the market.

There is a catch, though. ResiClub points out that most markets posting nominal gains are rising slower than incomes and consumer prices, so they are actually slipping in real terms. A Greater Boston home that "held its value" may still have lost ground.

In my experience, the regional average also hides wide swings between towns, price points and property types. A well-priced single-family near transit and an overpriced condo with a big monthly fee can be living in two different markets. You can check recent results town by town with the recent home sales tool or browse the Greater Boston town pages.

What Buyers Should Do Now

Buyers in Greater Boston probably will not see Sun Belt-style discounts, but they may find more room to negotiate than in recent years. Here is what matters:

• Track listings that sit. Homes that linger past the typical pace in a town, or that take a price cut, are where sellers become flexible.
• Ask for credits, not just price. With rates above 7%, a seller-paid rate buydown or closing credit can move your monthly payment more than a small price reduction.
• Stress-test the payment. Check where rates sit today on the current mortgage rates page and budget at a level you could live with if rates stay elevated.

What Sellers and Small Investors Should Do

Sellers should price off what is selling now, not what a neighbor got two years ago. When national momentum slows and rates jump, overpriced listings tend to sit, and a stale listing often ends up selling for less than a realistic first price would have.

Small investors face a slightly different calculation. Supply-constrained markets have proven more resilient, as the Hartford and Austin contrast shows. But if appreciation is trailing inflation, returns have to come from rent and sound purchase prices rather than from betting on rapid price gains.

Everyone should follow ResiClub's own advice: monitor local active inventory over the next several months. If listings in your town start climbing toward pre-pandemic levels, pricing power shifts toward buyers. If they stay thin, prices likely stay firm even with higher rates.

Bottom Line

The national market is softening again, but the declines are concentrated in high-inventory Sun Belt and Mountain West metros, not in tight Northeast markets like Greater Boston. Watch your specific town's inventory and price cuts rather than the headline. If you want a realistic number for your own home in this market, the home valuation tool is here.

Common Questions

Will Boston home prices crash like Austin's?

A repeat of Austin is unlikely under current conditions. Austin overheated during the pandemic boom and then faced heavy new construction, leaving prices 28.1% below their 2022 peak per ResiClub. Greater Boston's tight inventory works the other way, though a sustained inventory buildup would change that outlook.

Is a small price gain in Greater Boston actually a loss?

It can be. ResiClub notes most markets with nominal gains are rising slower than incomes and consumer prices, so they are falling in real terms. For a seller counting on equity growth to fund a move up, a stable price may buy less house than expected.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying near Boston?

Waiting only pays if prices fall more than your rent and rate costs rise in the meantime. In supply-constrained Greater Boston towns, that is far from guaranteed. A better approach is tracking specific towns for rising inventory and price cuts, then negotiating where sellers are clearly under pressure.

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Plato Asadov (Aflatun Asadov)
Licensed Massachusetts Real Estate Salesperson, Lic. #9579004
Brokered by Steve Bremis Realty Group. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Phone: 617-302-7222 · Email: plato@realestoria.com · realestoria.com
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This article was drafted with AI assistance from Plato's research tools and reviewed by Plato before publishing. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed; it is general education, not advice for your specific situation.